Panel a illustrates the topography (shaded; m) of the domain along with the various rivers and river basins. The altitude also varies from high mountains to coastal regions of low altitude. Even with this stricter criterion of the extended summer “half” of the year (September–April) being anomalously dry or wet, it is evident that all of the latter occurred in the first two decades of the period. This is illustrated by the yearly rainfall difference between Port Nolloth on the west coast, 50 mm and Richards Bay, 1 000 mm at the same latitude on the east coast. Mahlalela, P.T., Blamey, R.C., Hart, N.C.G. Geophys Res Lett 32:1–4. J Clim. However during spring, the wet bias is smaller (1 mm day−1) with November being the wettest month as observed; the lack of a small decrease from November to December in the multi-model mean unlike in the observed is not directly relevant to the spring focus in this study. Mon Weather Rev 135:1128–1150, Singleton A, Reason CJC (2007b) Variability in the characteristics of cut-off low pressure systems over subtropical southern Africa. The 2018–20 Southern Africa drought is an ongoing period of drought taking place in Southern Africa.The drought began in late October 2018, and is negatively affecting food security in the region. 14 it is evident that most of the 36 models project drying in spring but since 8 models project wetter conditions, then when averaged across the province, the multi-model mean indicates only very slight drying in this season. This produces a relatively dry climate in South Africa, with an abundance of sunshine. As a result, October is an important period … 4, 5, 6) over the Eastern Cape and the great concern of the public and government about climate change, it is of interest to examine CMIP5 model projections for future rainfall over the region, particularly since there is a likelihood of more extreme rainfall events occurring over southern Africa in the future (IPCC 2013). Int J Climatol 31:1–13, Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. The region lies between the Sahara Desert and the equatorial region of Central Africa. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 2(1):1–8, Cook C, Reason CJC, Hewitson BC (2004) Wet and dry spells within particularly wet and dry summers in the South African summer rainfall region. This lack of consistency of climate signals in not just spring but also in summer (except for SAM) further adds to the challenge of trying to understand the climate variability of this complex region. It is clear that spring (SON) and summer (DJF) contribute most of the annual rainfall on average for the bulk of the province. (a) Shows the percentage of normal rainfall received over Eastern Africa in October–December 2019 from TAMSATv3 (mean based on 1985–2019). 1999) which manifests in spring (and is strongly correlated with equatorial East African rainfall) show a negative correlation over the Eastern Cape but it is not statistically significant. However, the correspondence between the two time series during the almost 40 year period at both coastal and inland stations provides sufficient confidence in the ability of the CHIRPS data to adequately represent rainfall variability and change across the province. S Afr J Sci 114:70–78, Burls NJ, Blamey RC, Cash BA, Swenson ET, al Fahad A, Bopape M-JM, Straus DM, Reason CJC (2019) The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion. Clim Dyn 47:295–313, Engelbrecht CJ, Landman WA, Engelbrecht FA, Malherbe J (2015) A synoptic decomposition of rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa. Climate change could turn one of Africa's driest regions into a very wet one by suddenly switching on a Monsoon circulation. J Appl Meteorol 32:1282–1287, Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo J, Fiorino M, Potter G (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-ii reanalysis (r-2). 2003; Hansingo and Reason 2009) while SAM impacts have been found in summer (Gillett et al. 2015; Engelbrecht and Landman 2016). The diverse climates of Africa range from scorching deserts to icy glaciers, from steamy rainforests to grassy plains. 2010; Manhique et al. 1991; Todd and Washington 1999; Hart et al. The coast near Port Elizabeth at 34° S is relatively dry as is the western interior which forms part of the Karoo semidesert of the central-western inland regions of South Africa. Note that it is possible that topographic effects or other local forcing may lead to the differences between the time series. Western Cape Department of Agriculture (WCDoA) and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Elsenburg, Raphael MN (2004) A zonal wave number 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere. © 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Over the landmass, a stronger (weaker) Botswana High is also apparent with increased (decreased) subsidence over and near the Eastern Cape which is less (more) favourable for cloud band development and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall during dry (wet) springs. Nevertheless, using a zonal wavenumber 3 index such as that proposed by Raphael (2004) leads to a fairly strong and statistically significant correlation (Fig. Tropical rainforests are a dominant physical characteristic of the region. A correlation analysis was done between CHIRPS and station data to assess confidence in the ability of CHIRPS to represent the region. Mineral and timber exports earn the countries a lot of income. Most of the region shows a statistically significant decline in spring rainfall, particularly in the east, north and northeast. Although the 2015-drought has manifest itself throughout all seasons, focus here has been placed on spring (September–November) which shows the strongest and most coherent signal. ‘Whilst rainfall in some areas seems to have diminished, in others it appears to have increased.’ ‘Many of the lakes are natural bodies of water that are fed by the area's high rainfall.’ ‘So in the Sahel region of Africa average rainfall has fallen by a quarter in the last 30 years.’ South Africa is the largest food producer in the region, and a major exporter as well. A composite analysis of the 5 driest (wettest) springs since 1981 which are chosen on the basis that the extended summer are also anomalously dry (wet) indicated that these were related to a large cyclonic (anticyclonic) mid-tropospheric anomaly located to the south and southeast of South Africa that seems in turn to be related to changes in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern. 1b). J Climatol 8(1):17–30, Mahlalela P, Blamey RC, Reason CJC (2019) Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys 80(1–4):19–29, Rouault M, White S, Reason CJC, Lutjeharms J, Jobard I (2002) Ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Agulhas Current region and a South African extreme weather event. a The mean SON rainfall in CHIRPS (shaded; mm) and SAWS stations (circles; mm) and b the corresponding trend in SON rainfall over the period 1981–2018. Southern Africa is rich in mineral resources, with the largest deposits of platinum and related elements such as vanadium, cobalt, and chromium in the world. To see whether some insight may be obtained about future rainfall scenarios, a topic of great interest to both the public and the government, future rainfall projections in the region are considered using 36 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble (Taylor et al. These countries, from East to west are Eritrea, Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Gambia, and Senegal. Because the Eastern Cape includes the transition zone between the winter and summer rainfall dominated regions of South Africa, even small changes in the ways that individual ENSO, SIOD, IOD or SAM events influence the tracks or strengths of rain-producing weather systems crossing the region can have substantial impacts on seasonal rainfall and may preclude any consistent signal. Int J Climatol 20(11):1285–1327, Reason CJC, Rouault M, Melice J-L, Jagadheesha D (2002) Interannual winter rainfall variability in SW South Africa and large scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. 5a, 6a). 4), or indeed in summer (Blamey et al. The region’s socioeconomic activity is closely tied to rainfall and its variability: agriculture production is predominately rain-fed rather than irrigated, while electricity production is largely derived from hydropower e.g. Here, focus is placed on SON which seems to show the strongest and most coherent drought signal. The African Zone cuts across ten countries. The Southern region of Africa lies in the southernmost part of the continent, as the name implies. Although the sign of the anomalies is almost always the same for each station, there are some springs when there are sizeable differences in magnitude at some stations. In South Africa, many model projections show a tendency for wetting in the summer rainfall region (north and east) and drying in the winter rainfall region (southwest). J Hydrometeorol 4(6):1147–1167, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2001) Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 31:L23212. The mean seasonal rainfall contribution (shaded with contours; in percentage) to the annual rainfall total for a winter—JJA, b spring—SON, c summer—DJF and d autumn—MAM. Future projections of rainfall change show both potential increases and decreases. The multi-model mean (MMM) in given in the last panel. Trends in spring rainfall characteristics were also investigated. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicate a drying but less pronounced than for the summer. Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer ... which bring rainfall to each region. 2002; Blamey et al. Part 6, Rainfall in South Africa. Clim Dyn 53:21–39, Manhique A, Reason CJC, Rydberg L, Fauchereau N (2011) ENSO and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropical temperate troughs over Mozambique and the Southwest Indian Ocean. The time series are correlated at 95% significance at each station with r values ranging from 0.61 to 0.90. Furthermore, spatial maps (not shown) of CHIRPS rainfall anomalies across the region for spring show that the last significantly wet season (spatially averaged standardised anomaly of 1.35) occurred in 2001 with only three of the springs between 2003 and 2018 showing positive anomalies (0.18 in 2006, 0.26 in 2007 and 0.09 in 2014). The latter show a weak bimodal cycle with November and February as the wettest months; however, the bimodal aspects in the dry season are not obvious since May, June and July are all very similar and then the average rainfall starts increasing from August. NCEP II reanalyses are also used to plot features of semi-permanent anticyclones in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Nonetheless, the complex geography and meteorology of this region does provide an interesting test bed for climate models. Correlations of the spring Eastern Cape rainfall with the Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI) (Saji et al. The annual cycle of rainfall (rain rate; mm/day) averaged across the river basin polygon for the Eastern Cape in 36 CMIP5 models for a the historical runs for the 1979–2005, b the mid-twenty-first century projections (2040–2060) and c the difference between the mid-twenty-first century projections and the historical runs. Overall, the results suggest that the rainfall gradient across the province is weakening, at least in spring. 2015). First, most of the continent—which extends from 35° S to about 37° N latitude—lies within the tropics. The Sahelian climate is characterized by a long dry season and a rainy season which starts in June and ends in September–October. South Africa's position on the earth globe between 22 and 34 degrees southern latitude, puts it within the subtropical belt of high pressure systems in winter and low pressure systems in summer, that circles the globe between 25 and 30 degrees southern latitude. There are 18 countries in the region, all occupying a total area of 5,112,903 km2. Figure 7 shows that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly to the southeast of South Africa which is part of a wavenumber 3 or 4 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, given the strong land and ocean surface gradients in the region and its sensitivity to both tropical and midlatitude circulation, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. Int J Climatol 19(15):1651–1673, Reason CJC, Rouault M (2005) Links between the Antarctic Oscillation and winter rainfall over western South Africa. This contour level is chosen as it is easily identified as closed contour level around the anticyclones, which is not intersected with the neighbouring land masses in either the early or late summer periods. After being close to full in 2015, both dams have fallen to their lowest levels since 1985 with the decline during 2017–2019 being especially sharp. In two years with anomalously high AMJ rainfall in region 5, 2002 and 2006, rainfall exceeds 10 mm on 20 days (on 6 of which it exceeds 20 mm). (2020) found that there are large variations in the modelled average locations and frequencies of these weather systems between the models even though all models correctly simulate the large scale generation and evolution of the cloud bands. 5a) is weakening, at least in spring. Tourism and Agriculture are major economic activities in the area. For the coastal zone, spring and summer each contribute about 30% of the annual total whereas summer dominates in the northern interior (40–45%). This run of recent consecutive dry springs is consistent with the trend results (Figs. Although the region has experienced drought in all seasons since 2015, focus here is placed on the spring (September–November) which shows the most consistent and robust signal. As a result, the meteorology here is complex and often involves interactions with the regional topography or the neighbouring warm Agulhas Current (e.g., Rouault et al. Thus, the aims of the study are to investigate the post-2015 drought within the context of previous large anomalies in spring rainfall over the last forty years and any long-term rainfall change and to examine the potential mechanisms associated with spring drought in the region. 4) show average to well below average rainfall during SON 2015 with several also showing that a sharp decline occurred in this season with little or no recovery during 2016–2018. Analysis of mid-century (2040–2060) projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggested that there may be a slight flattening of the annual cycle over the Eastern Cape with the winter becoming wetter and the summer drier. The climate of the region is largely varied unlike that of other equatorial regions. J Hydrometeorol 19:127–142, Botai CM, Botai JO, Adeola AM (2018) Spatial distribution of temporal precipitation contrasts in South Africa. Figure 4 plots standardized anomalies of SON rainfall for the period 1981–2018 for the 11 available SAWS stations together with CHIRPS data averaged from the 4 grid points surrounding each station (small red boxes in Fig. The world’s fifth longest river, the Zaire River, passes through the region. Only one ensemble member (r1i1p1) per model is included in the analysis. This test was used as it makes no assumption about the data distribution and is insensitive to outliers. 2009; Hart et al. The correlation between SON rainfall and a eastern, b southern, c western and d northern extent of the South Indian Ocean High Pressure (see text for details). The inhabitants of the equatorial region speak a variety of ethnic languages, and the most practiced religions are Christianity and Islam. In the USA areas of less than 250mm of rainfall are regarded as arid areas. The river basins have been merged into a “west” and “east” basin to highlight some of the regional rainfall differences. Areas that are statistically significant at the 95% level are denoted by stippling. Belay Begashaw is the director general of the Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa in Kigali, Rwanda. J Clim 31:2797–2817, IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Although Fig. Stippling (green or black) or larger circles denotes values significant at a 95% level using a two-tailed Mann–Kendall test. 2003) and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) (Xie and Arkin 1997). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(11):2539–2558. The other name for this region found in the Northern part of the African Continent is Sahel. 2018a). This sub-region is also known as Eastern Africa, and it occupies the eastern region of the massive African continent. Most of the decreasing rainfall trend seems to result from a reduction in the number of rainfall days but not in heavy rainfall days (defined as more than > 10 mm per day). Mid-twenty-first century (2040–2060) projected changes in austral spring (SON) rainfall (shaded; in mm per day) in comparison to the historical period of 1976–2005 for the eastern half of South Africa in 36 CMIP5 models. However, because rainfall in this area is often localized—sometimes almost at the level of one farm—it's difficult to forecast accurately with satellite data, which show larger weather patterns. South Africa is facing severe pressure with respect to water security due to an increased water demand with increasing population, poor planning and management of water resources, limited investment into water reservoir infrastructure, and recurring droughts over the past decade. Six African nations make up the Equatorial region. Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics. NCEP and OISST data were obtained from the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. Examination of GPCC data (not shown) indicates that most of South Africa including the entire Eastern Cape received below average rainfall in SON 2019. The region is comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. This east/northeastern region is in fact part of a larger region of eastern South Africa (with strongest trends in this part of the Eastern Cape, Lesotho and eastern Free State) (not shown) which shows significant decreasing trends in spring rainfall totals and rain days. contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, James R, Hart N, Munday C, Reason CJC, Washington R (2020) Coupled climate model simulation of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over southern Africa. et al. Geophys Res Lett 43(3):1280–1286, Reason CJC, Mulenga H (1999) Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the southwest Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 37:570–581, Engelbrecht CJ, Landman WA (2016) Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association. Geophys Res Lett 28(11):2225–2227, Reason CJC (2016) The Bolivian, Botswana, and Bilybara Highs and Southern Hemisphere drought/floods. Countries in the Horn of Africa are rich in ancient history. Although there does not appear to any obvious linkage between these large-scale climate modes and spring rainfall over the Eastern Cape, the wavenumber 3 or 4 patterns in Fig. Environ Res Lett 13:124025, Taljaard JJ (1985) Cut-off lows in the South African region. 8b, c) relative to the 850 hPa climatological moisture flux (Fig. 2019; Burls et al. In Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon however, farming of export crops like palm oil, coffee, and cocoa takes place in large plantations. On interannual time scales, the results indicate that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly southeast of South Africa as part of a shift in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern in the midlatitudes. On examining the spatial extent and centre of these anticyclones for the composite seasons, it is found that the South Atlantic anticyclone tends to be located further to the southeast (and closer to western South Africa) in drier than wetter springs while the SIHP tends to located nearer Western Australia (eastern South Africa) in the dry (wet) case. There is no alternative. Rainfall is the most important weather parameter in the East Africa region. Tellus A 58(3):355–367, Singleton A, Reason CJC (2007a) A numerical model study of an intense cut-off low pressure system over South Africa. 12a) with spring rainfall over much of the Eastern Cape as well as part of the northeast of South Africa. The southern and western extents of the SIHP (Fig. The probability of the trend occurring was measured at a 5% significance level. Desertification due to overgrazing and climate change is a big threat to the people of this region. Daily rainfall data were converted to seasonal totals with Fig. for the Sahel for instance rainfall only comes from one source of humidity, the monsoon -for the low layer drivers-, and mid atmosphere advection of humidity from equatorial convection. These anomalous locations of the anticyclones further encourage less (more) cloud bands and cold fronts over the Eastern Cape region during dry (wet) springs. As at 2016, the population of West Africa was approximately 362 million people. Nollywood, Nigeria’s film industry is the largest film industry in Africa and second largest in the world. A contrast exists between fewer (more) rain days in the west/southwest (northeast) consistent with rainfall totals being of order 50–150 mm in the former and 250–400 mm in the latter region (Figs. PubMed Google Scholar. mutton sheep flocks in a low rainfall region of South Africa Abstract This paper investigated the relative financial performance of woolled and mutton sheep and the determinants of woolled sheep ownership for 34 full-time sheep farms in Laingsburg South Africa, where rainfall is only 128 millimetres per annum. These anomalously wet (dry) SON seasons were chosen such that they occur in the same year as the overall (SONDJFMA) summer being wet (dry). 2a). Second, the near bisection of the continent by the Equator results in a largely symmetrical arrangement of climatic zones on either side. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1644, Lindesay J (1988) South African rainfall, the Southern Oscillation and a Southern Hemisphere semi-annual cycle. It is a region of diverse people and cultures. In the two years with anomalously low AMJ rainfall, 1998 and 2004, it exceeds 10 mm on only 2 days and exceeds 5 mm on only 11 days. Indeed none of the hemispheric circulation anomalies in Fig. 7 are obviously reminiscent of these climate modes which are ENSO, the South Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (SIOD), the Benguela Niño, and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). (1993) that the distance from the Eastern Cape coast to the core of this current which is of order a few 10 s of kms north of 33° S but of order 100 km by the time the current reaches 34° S, may play a role in the strong decrease in mean rainfall along the Eastern Cape coast (see Fig. 2015). The region is comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. Based on the climatological moisture flux shown in Fig. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00127.1, Article  If an index for only the South Indian Ocean component of the wavenumber 3 index is used (standardised anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height spatially averaged over 45–50° S, 45–60° E) then Fig. Failure in rainfall in the region reassess the teleconnection between ENSO and rainfall for the winter rainfall region of South Africa. The correlation between the two datasets is given at the bottom left of each panel. The majority of the El Niño and La Niña signals over the interior of southern Africa (west of 30°E) are associated with tropical lows. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicated drying but less pronounced than for the summer. Since the Eastern Cape is only part of the large area in southern Africa affected by cloud bands, small errors in the model simulations of cloud bands can therefore lead to substantial discrepancies in the resulting model simulation of seasonal rainfall. insufficient rainfall or very low rainfall. 2000; Behera and Yamagata 2001; Reason 2001), the third in the late summer and typically more over Namibia and Angola than South Africa (Rouault et al. Most of the countries in the region are home to many species of wildlife including mountain gorillas and the "big five". Panels b, c show the composite anomalies for dry and wet springs respectively (shaded; g kg−1 s−1 × 10–6), SON composite anomaly of omega (shaded with contours; Pa s−1) at the 500 hPa level for a dry and b wet springs, Composite anomaly of OLR (shaded; W/m−2) for a wet and b dry springs. A stronger Angola Low and this moisture inflow have been found to be important for both synoptic and seasonal scale wet spells in summer over South Africa and the reverse during dry conditions (Mulenga et al. The correlation between SON rainfall and a the zonal wave number 3 index of Raphael (2004) and b only the South Indian Ocean High component of that index. It is greater than 5 mm on a total of 29 days. However in some parts of the world, the aridity may be measured differently e.g. 11d). 11a) is strongly negatively correlated with SON rainfall over the “west” basin of the Eastern Cape as well as most of western South Africa. Given the semi-arid conditions that prevail over much of the region, the generally low incomes, and the dependence on water resources, all of which account for a high vulnerability, these variations have dramatic effects on the economy and the living of local communities. The Eastern Cape province of South Africa lies in the transition zone between the winter rainfall (western South Africa) and the summer rainfall (rest of subtropical southern Africa) regions which makes it an interesting but complex region to study. Box plots in c cover the 10th–90th percentile range of a change in rain rate. Although droughts often happen in South Africa, in recent decades there has been a tendency for more multi-year droughts to occur. This is so because the economies of the countries in the region are mainly dependent on rain fed agriculture (Funk et al., 2008; Ngetich et al., 2014; Fox and Rockström, 2005; Ongoma, 2013). 5 of Blamey et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in 5b) than that in heavy rain days. 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